Housing Market Forecast 2022: Will It Crash or Boom in 2022

Mortgage rates at record lows and a lack of available inventory are sustaining the US housing market’s demand. While affordability concerns continue to grow, low mortgage rates, increased savings, and a strengthening job market all contribute to making homeownership more accessible to a wide number of prospective buyers. However, will the housing market ever crash? Let’s look at the most recent trends in 2021 and housing market predictions for 2022.

In 2020, the number of home sales increased significantly and surpassed 2007 levels. Despite the economic uncertainty caused by the pandemic, many buyers took a more serious approach to homeownership than ever before. It resulted in a massive, but brief, increase in homeownership as a result of drastically reduced spending. The housing market has been particularly robust this year, with high demand for homes in almost every area of the nation.

The real estate market has emerged as a boon for sellers and a source of worry for buyers in the middle of this epidemic. Home prices have been increasing in the mid-single digits for many years. Recent double-digit price rises reflect the convergence of exceptional demand and chronically low supply. Prices are increasing as a result of enough money on the sidelines and very low mortgage rates.

The improving economy and the approaching peak homebuying years of millennials are driving a residential housing boom. The housing supply is now at its lowest level since the 1970s, due to millennial homeownership and other factors such as rising building prices and real estate speculators snapping up starter homes.

The Census Bureau has released its most recent quarterly report, which includes data through the third quarter of 2021. Seasonally adjusted, the homeownership rate for Q3 is 65.4 percent, down from 65.4 percent in Q2. Additionally, the nonseasonally adjusted Q2 figure is 65.4 percent, which is unchanged from the Q2 2021 figure.

Low mortgage rates, coupled with more work-from-home possibilities created by the pandemic, have also fuelled a rise in housing demand, especially in lower-density suburbs. Detached single-family houses continue to be in great demand. These properties provide greater living space and separation from adjacent houses than attached properties provide.

We’ll examine current real estate trends, including price and rent increases, housing sales and supply, mortgage rates and delinquencies, and other key industry takeaways and insights into the US housing market.

The Housing Market’s Current Trends: Crash vs Boom?

In November, the housing markets are demonstrating signs of rebalancing, as evidenced by a steady pace of transactions and more moderate price growth. As more homeowners list their homes for sale, these homes remain on the market for longer periods of time. Despite this, buyers must be prepared to act quickly, even if they get a few additional days to decide. While the housing market remains largely a seller’s market due to demand still outpacing supply, it is clear that things are changing. More homes are coming on the market, and the number of bidding wars has decreased significantly.

Forecasting home price appreciation is a challenging task. While inventory has increased slightly, it remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels and is simply unable to meet current demand. The latest housing news has Zillow revising its 2022 real estate forecast. They released a bullish 2022 forecast in September, predicting that home prices in the United States would rise another 11.7 percent over the next 12 months.

However, the real estate listing site now claims that their previous forecast was too pessimistic. They published a new report predicting that home prices in the United States will increase 13.6 percent between October 2021 and October 2022, and to end 2021 up 19.5% from December 2020.

While Zillow’s forecast is bullish, it is also a bit of an outlier when compared to CoreLogic’s forecast for a 2.2 percent increase in US home prices. On the other hand, Freddie Mac’s forecast is more bullish than Zillow’s. The FMHPI is an indicator for typical house price inflation in the United States. It indicates that home prices increased by 11.3 percent in the United States in 2020 as a result of robust housing demand and record low mortgage rates.

Growth is expected to slow to 7 percent in 2022, according to their latest forecast. The pace of home sales has cooled since the first quarter of 2021 when it was at 7.2 million. Freddie Mac predicts home sales to hit 6.8 million for the full years 2021 and 2022. Additionally, they forecast house price growth of 16.9% in 2021. However, they expect house price growth to slow to 7.0% in 2022.

Strong house price growth is expected to lift home purchase mortgage originations from $1.9 trillion in 2021 to $2.1 trillion in 2022. With a higher mortgage rate forecast for 2022, they anticipate refinancing activity to soften, with refinancing originations declining from $2.6 trillion in 2021 to just below $1.0 trillion in 2022. Overall, Freddie Mac predicts that total originations will decline from $4.5 trillion in 2021 to $3.1 trillion in 2022.

VA House Bill 2064 – House Bill 2064 – Remote Online Notarization (RON)

Notary Law Update: VA House Bill 2064

State: Virginia

Summary:

House Bill 2064 now authorizes a credible witness to identify a remote signer for a remote online notarization (RON) or requires two forms of “identity proofing.” It also requires new information to be included in the notarial certificate for a RON.

Signed:  March 11, 2021

Effective:  March 11, 2021

Chapter: 78

Affects:
Amends Sections 47.1-2 and 47.1-16 of the Code of Virginia.

Changes:

  1. Defines “credential analysis,” “identity proofing,” and “remote online notarization.”
  2. Modifies the identification requirements for remote online notarization by requiring the Notary to have (a) personal knowledge of the principal, (b) the oath or affirmation of a credible witness, or (c) at least two of the following: (i) credential analysis of an unexpired government-issued identification bearing a photograph of the principal’s face and signature, (ii) identity proofing by an antecedent in-person identity proofing process in accordance with the specifications of the Federal Bridge Certification Authority, (iii) another identity proofing method authorized in guidance documents, regulations, or standards adopted pursuant to COV 2.2-436, or (iv) a valid digital certificate accessed by biometric data or by use of an interoperable Personal Identity Verification card.
  3. Requires a notarial certificate for a remote online notarization to include the county in Virginia where the electronic Notary was physically located at the time of the notarial act.
  4. Requires a notarial certificate for a remote online notarization to include a statement whether the notarization was done in person or by remote online notarization.
  5. Makes technical changes.

Analysis:

In 2012, Virginia was the first state to enact and implement remote online notarization. It was the state that started the most significant legislative trend in the history of the U.S. Notary Public office. Twenty-nine states have followed Virginia’s lead. In the intervening years, voices in the Notary community criticized Virginia’s RON statute for being weak on identification and not requiring a notarial certificate for a RON to explicitly state that a RON was performed. At the time Virginia enacted its bill, technologists were starting to figure out how to verify the identity of remotely located individuals. Virginia law only allowed a Notary to use personal knowledge, a digital certificate accessed by biometric data that complied with the prevalent federal standard, or an antecedent in-person identity proofing process in accordance with the specifications of the Federal Bridge Certification Authority. States that followed Virginia in enacting RON moved to a different set of methods to identify individuals remotely, including “credential analysis” of a government-issued identification document such as a passport or driver’s license. House Bill 2064 now brings its methods of identification in line with other states by allowing a credible witness to identify a remote signer or requiring two forms of “identity proofing.” In another change, the notarial certificate for a RON now must indicate the name of the city or county in Virginia where the electronic Notary was located when they performed the RON and a statement indicating either that the notarial act was performed in person or by a RON.

Can I administer an oath using Skype or Zoom?

One of our law clerks recently passed the California Bar. Am I authorized to swear her in as an attorney, and can I witness her signing her Bar card via Skype or Zoom?  —  C.H., California

You are authorized to administer an oath to an attorney for the state bar (see GC 8205[a][2]), but you may not use Skype or Zoom to do it because California law does not give Notaries the authority to administer remote oaths. The oath must be administered to the individual in the Notary’s physical presence.

Hotline answers are based on the laws in the state where the question originated and may not reflect the laws of other states. If in doubt, always refer to your own state statutes. – The Editors

Confronted with a tricky notarization? Unsure how to proceed? NNA members have unlimited access to our expertly trained NNA Hotline counselors to help you with all of your notarial questions. Call 1-888-876-0827, Monday through Friday, 5 a.m. to 7 p.m. PST; Saturday, 5 a.m. to 5 p.m. PT.

Notary Public Code of Professional Responsibility

View or download The Notary Public Code of Professional Responsibility [PDF].

In 1998, the National Notary Association introduced the first-ever comprehensive and detailed code of ethical and professional conduct for America’s Notaries: The Notary Public Code of Professional Responsibility. The Code addresses common problems, issues and questions encountered by today’s Notaries by prescribing principles, standards and rules and applying them in helpful specific examples.

The Code is designed to guide Notaries Public when state statutes, regulations and official directives fall short in guiding notaries to perform their official duties. It also serves these functions:

  • Educates Non-Notaries – The Code may be handed to an employer, a coworker, a customer or any other user of notarial services to explain the Notary’s proper role.
  • Catalyst for Change – For lawmaker and administrators, the Codeis a moral imperative for progressive change and a catalyst for improving notarial statutes and conventions.
  • Reduces Fraud, Litigation – Widespread implementation of the Code will reduce fraud and the volume of civil and criminal lawsuits.
  • Fosters Confidence – Any Notary’s adherence to the standards of the Code brings confidence that he or she is acting in accordance with the highest professional and ethical traditions of the Notary office.
  • Engenders Respect – Widespread adherence to the standards of the Code will heighten professionalism and engender respect and recognition for the Notary office in this nation and abroad.

Real Estate Market Values Spike in the Second Quarter

The latest Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States, i.e., the “Flow of Funds”, show that in the second quarter of 2021 the aggregate market value of all owner-occupied real estate in the United States registered the largest quarterly increase in the last 21 years of data. From $33.8 trillion in the first quarter of 2021, real estate rose by $1.1 trillion in value to $34.9 trillion, making it the largest quarterly increase on record. As a previous post details, the second quarter also saw unsustainably high home price appreciation due to lack of inventory.

 

FHFA Extends COVID-19 Multifamily Forbearance Indefinitely

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) will continue to offer COVID-19 forbearance to qualifying multifamily property owners as needed, subject to the continued tenant protections FHFA has imposed during the pandemic.

This is the fourth extension of the programs, which were set to expire Sept. 30. On Oct. 1, FHFA will allow the Enterprises to continue offering COVID-19 forbearance to qualified multifamily owners, unless otherwise instructed by FHFA.

“Given the uncertain nature of this pandemic, FHFA is taking further action to protect renters, property owners, and the mortgage market,” said Acting Director Sandra L. Thompson.

Property owners with Enterprise-backed multifamily mortgages can enter a new or, if qualified, modified forbearance if they experience a financial hardship due to the COVID-19 emergency. Property owners who enter into a new or modified forbearance agreement must:

  • Inform tenants in writing about tenant protections available during the property owner’s forbearance and repayment periods; and
  • Agree not to evict tenants solely for the nonpayment of rent while the property is in forbearance.

Additional tenant protections apply during the repayment periods. These protections include:

  • Giving tenants at least a 30-day notice to vacate;
  • Not charging tenants late fees or penalties for nonpayment of rent; and
  • Allowing tenant flexibility in the repayment of back-rent over time, and not necessarily in a lump sum.

FHFA may extend or sunset its policies based on updated data and the impacts of COVID-19. Home owners and renters can visit consumerfinance.gov/housing for up-to-date information on their relief options, protections, and key deadlines.

Credits: https://nahbnow.com/2021/09/fhfa-extends-covid-19-multifamily-forbearance-indefinitely/

HUD, FHFA Team to Advance Fair Housing and Fair Lending Enforcement

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) andfhfa the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today entered into a first-of-its-kind collaborative agreement regarding fair housing and fair lending coordination.

The two agencies signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that will focus on enhancing their enforcement of the Fair Housing Act, which HUD is primarily charged with administering and enforcing, and their oversight of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks, all of which FHFA regulates.

In a press release, HUD and FHFA said the MOU is an important mechanism that strengthens their ability to enforce fair housing and fair lending requirements “by promoting information sharing, coordination on investigations, compliance reviews, and the ongoing monitoring of the Enterprises” (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac).

HUD and FHFA added that they anticipate the MOU “will lead to stronger oversight that will help advance vigorous fair housing enforcement that can begin to redress our nation’s history of discriminatory housing practices.”

View the MOU between HUD and FHFA regarding fair housing and fair lending coordination.

FHFA Announces Equitable Housing Finance Plans for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) today announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) will submit Equitable Housing Finance Plans to FHFA by the end of 2021.

The Enterprises will update these plans annually and they will identify and address barriers to sustainable housing opportunities, including the Enterprises’ goals and action plans to advance equity in housing finance for the next three years.

FHFA also will require the Enterprises to submit annual progress reports on the actions undertaken during the prior year to implement their plans.

Under the recently signed Memorandum of Understanding between FHFA and HUD regarding fair housing and fair lending coordination, HUD provided insight and expertise to FHFA regarding this equitable housing finance initiative.

FHFA is issuing a Request for Input ​that seeks public comment until Oct. 25, to aid the Enterprises in preparing their first plans and to aid FHFA in overseeing the plans.

FHFA will also host a public listening session​ on Sept. 28 to allow for additional public input.